By Edmund – December 30, 2024

It hit me like a ton of bricks while pondering Drake’s Equation (and no, not that Drake—though imagine if Kendrick Lamar had dropped his own cosmic equation just to one-up him). There I was, sitting there in a galaxy of thoughts, when it suddenly hit me: Drake’s Equation is missing a key variable. Something so simple yet so profound that it might just explain why we’re still here, stuck on Earth, wondering if we’re alone in the universe.

The Cosmic Realization

I was deep in thought, contemplating the number of advanced civilizations potentially floating around in space, when it suddenly dawned on me: Drake’s Equation isn’t asking the right question. It’s not about how many civilizations are out there—it’s about how many of those can actually reach us. And that, my friends, is where things get real.

It’s like trying to get into the hottest club in the galaxy, but when you arrive, the bouncer’s like, “Yeah, that’s cute, but there’s an infinite line of cooler civilizations ahead of you. Sorry.” The truth is, we might be so far down on the cosmic to-do list that we might not even get a visit. Think about it—if there are so many advanced civilizations, how many of them can actually make the journey to Earth? More importantly, how many of them even care to visit a rock like ours?

A Chat with AI About Our Cosmic FOMO

That’s when I needed to run this idea by someone—or something. Enter AI.

Here’s how the convo went down:

“Hey,” I basically said, “what if the problem isn’t about how many civilizations are out there, but how many civilizations can actually reach Earth in this vast universe?”

The AI caught on quickly but didn’t quite nail it, so I had to go further: “Look, what if Earth is way down the cosmic list? There are so many civilizations out there that could visit, but so few that actually can. We might not even be on their radar because there are cooler places in the universe to visit.”

From there, we came up with two new variables that, to me, really flipped the equation on its head:

  • V (Visitability) – The number of civilizations that could actually reach Earth, considering their tech and resources.
  • H (House Capacity) – The number of civilizations that are worth visiting, essentially the cosmic “cool factor.” If Earth is sitting at the bottom of that list, we might be overlooked in favor of planets with more advanced or interesting civilizations.

With these two variables, the “visitability factor” is born: the ratio of civilizations that can visit Earth versus those that are actually worth visiting. And spoiler alert: the numbers don’t look good for us.

The Brutal Truth

After all this brainstorming with AI, the conclusion was pretty harsh: Earth might not make the cut. Even if there are trillions of civilizations out there, it’s very likely we’re just another dot on the map. A pretty small dot at that. The problem is, the number of civilizations that can reach us could be vastly outnumbered by those that are more interesting or evolved—places that have cooler features or better technology.

It’s like that small-town kid trying to get into Studio 54. You might have a decent outfit, but there’s an infinite line of more advanced civilizations with better invites. You don’t even get a second glance from the bouncer.

As I put it eloquently during the convo: “****, we can’t even get into the club.”

Why This Matters

Okay, so why does this even matter? It changes everything. If the universe is full of civilizations that could manipulate time and space, why would they even bother with us? If they can travel across galaxies, Earth might not be high on the list. We might be way at the bottom, or worse, not on it at all.

Imagine all these other cosmic clubs—places with civilizations so advanced they could pass us by without a second thought. And if we ever figure out time and space travel, we might just find ourselves in a universe so packed with life that being “discovered” doesn’t even come close to the reality of cosmic competition. We might not be the next big thing, just a small-town planet that missed the VIP list.

The Cosmic Irony

It’s ironic when you think about it. The universe is vast, potentially teeming with life, but we might never even make the guest list. There’s an infinite number of better options out there, more advanced, more worthy of a visit than we are. Sure, we might crack the code on interstellar travel, but even if we can zip across the galaxy, we might still be waiting outside the velvet rope, looking longingly at the parties we’ll never get into.

And maybe that’s okay. Maybe the universe is so big, we don’t have to be the star of the show to have a seat at the table. Maybe there’s something beautiful in realizing that we’re just one small part of a much, much larger story.

Beyond Our Galaxy

Let’s take it a step further: if we can travel beyond our galaxy someday, what do we even expect to find? A universe so vast and populated that the idea of being “discovered” becomes irrelevant. The universe could be teeming with planets and civilizations that have no interest in us. They might have already made their choices on who’s worth visiting. After all, if you can hop galaxies, why stop at Earth?

But here’s the real kicker: What if they’ve already been here?

Now, let’s say these civilizations have mastered not only the ability to travel across galaxies but also to traverse time itself. What if, instead of us being stuck waiting for a visit, the reality is that they’ve already been here, in different epochs—observing, interacting, or perhaps even shaping our history without us ever knowing? Imagine civilizations with the ability to pop in and out of time, visiting Earth at various stages of our development, each visit leaving its own subtle mark.

If these inter-galactic beings are capable of observing or influencing us across different epochs, it might explain some of the strange anomalies and mysteries we’ve encountered throughout history. Ancient civilizations may have left behind traces of visitors who weren’t from this time, yet were somehow connected to us across the ages. Perhaps they’ve been watching us grow, evolve, and falter, understanding that the human story isn’t linear but filled with overlapping cycles of growth and decay.

In that case, maybe we’re not on the cosmic B-list after all—we’re simply part of a much larger, more complex narrative unfolding across time and space. The question is: Are we ready for the truth about our place in this vast, time-traveling universe?

Maybe it’s time to stop waiting for a visit and start considering that we’ve been part of an ongoing cosmic dialogue all along.

Edmund spends his time contemplating the cosmos and occasionally making Drake equation puns, much to everyone’s chagrin.